Chapter 1. Introduction 7
1.1. Foreign Exchange as a Financial Market 7
1.2. Foreign Exchange in a Historical Perspective 8
1.3. Main Stages of Recent Foreign Exchange Development 9
The Bretton Woods Accord 9
The International Monetary Fund 9
Free-Floating of Currencies 10
The European Monetary Union 11
The European Monetary Cooperation Fund 12
The Euro 12
1.4. Factors Caused Foreign Exchange Volume Growth 13
Interest Rate Volatility 13
Business Internationalization 13
Increasing of Corporate Interest 13
Increasing of Traders Sophistication 13
Developments in Telecommunications 14
Computer and Programming Development 14
FOREX. On-line Manual For Successful Trading iii
Chapter 2. Kinds Of Major Currencies
and Exchange Systems 15
2.1. Major Currencies 15
The U.S. Dollar 15
The Euro 15
The Japanese Yen 16
The British Pound 16
The Swiss Franc 16
2.2. Kinds of Exchange Systems 17
Trading with Brokers 17
Direct Dealing 18
Dealing Systems 18
Matching Systems 18
2.3. The Federal Reserve System of the USA and
Central Banks of the Other G-7 Countries 20
The Federal Reserve System of the USA 20
The Central Banks of the Other G-7 Countries 21
Chapter 3. Kinds of Foreign Exchange Market 23
3.1. Spot Market 23
3.2. Forward Market 26
3.3. Futures Market 27
3.4. Currency Options 28
Delta 30
Gamma 30
Vega 30
Theta 31
FOREX. On-line Manual For Successful Trading iv
Chapter 4. Fundamental Analysis 32
4.1. Economic Fundamentals 32
Theories of Exchange Rate Determination 32
Purchasing Power Parity 32
The PPP Relative Version 33
Theory of Elasticities 33
Modern Monetary Theories on Short-term Exchange
Rate Volatility 33
The Portfolio-Balance Approach 34
Synthesis of Traditional and Modern Monetary Views 34
4.2. Economic Indicators 35
The Gross National Product (GNP) 35
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 35
Consumption Spending 36
Investment Spending 36
Government Spending 36
Net Trade 36
Industrial Production 36
Capacity Utilization 36
Factory Orders 37
Durable Goods Orders 37
Business Inventories 37
Construction Indicators 37
Inflation Indicators 38
Producer Price Index (PPI) 39
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 39
Gross National Product Implicit Deflator 39
Gross Domestic Product Implicit Deflator 39
Commodity Research Bureau's Futures Index (CRB Index) 39
The “Journal of Commerce” Industrial Price Index (Joc) 40
Merchandise Trade Balance 40
Employment Indicators 40
Employment Cost Index (ECI) 41
Consumer Spending Indicators 41
Auto Sales 41
Leading Indicators 42
Personal Income 42
4.3. Financial and Sociopolitical Factors 43
The Role of Financial Factors 43
Political Events and Crises 44
FOREX. On-line Manual For Successful Trading v
Chapter 5. Technical Analysis 45
5.1. The Evolution and Fundamentals of Technical
Analysis Theory of Dow 45
Price 45
Volume and Open Interest 47
5.2. Types of Charts 49
Line Chart 49
Bar Chart 50
Candlestick Chart 51
5.3. Trends, Support and Resistance 53
Kinds of Trends 53
Percentage Retracement 55
The Trendline 55
Lines of Support and Resistance 57
5.4. Trend Reversal Patterns 59
Head-and-Shoulders 59
Signal Generated by the Head-and-shoulders Pattern 59
Inverse Head-and-Shoulders 61
Double Top 61
Signals Provided by the Double Top Formation 62
Double Bottom 63
Triple Top and Triple Bottom 63
The opposite is true for the triple bottom 64
Rounded Top and Bottom Formations 65
Diamond Formation 65
5.5. Trend Continuation Patterns 67
Flag Formation 67
Pennant Formation 67
Triangle Formation 70
Wedge Formation 75
Rectangle Formation 76
5.6. Gaps 78
Common Gaps 78
Breakaway Gaps 78
Runaway Gaps 79
Trading Signals for Runaway Gaps 79
Exhaustion Gaps 80
FOREX. On-line Manual For Successful Trading vi
5.7. Mathematical Trading Methods (Indicators) 81
Moving Averages 81
Trading Signals of Moving Averages 83
Oscillators 84
Stochastics 85
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) 86
Momentum 87
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) 88
Rate of Change (ROC) 89
Larry Williams %R 90
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) 90
Bollinger Bands 93
The Parabolic System (SAR) 93
The directional movement index (DMI) 93
Chapter 6. The Fibonacci Analysis and
Elliott Wave Theory 95
6.1. The Fibonacci Analysis 95
6.2. The Elliott Wave 96
Basics of Wave Analysis 96
Impulse Waves—Variations 98
The Diagonal Triangles 100
Failures (Truncated Fifths) 102
Chapter 7. Foreign Exchange Risks 104
7.1. Exchange Rate Risk 104
7.2. Interest Rate Risk 106
7.3. Credit Risk 107
7.4. Country Risk 108
Glossary And Foreign Exchange Terms 109
Bibliography
